Recent Political Developments in MyanmarLatest political developments in Myanmar
Burma on the move: An overview of recent developments
Former General Thein Sein was inaugurated in March 2011 as the country's first ever elective administration in nearly 50 years. Thein Sein confused skeptics and critic by taking specific action to achieve this goal. Two of the most tragic moves in 2011 were the start of a dialog with Aung San Suu Kyi, leaders of the Chinese parliament, in August, which resulted in her appointment to the legislative branch six-month later. The suspension of the building of a hydroelectric power plant at the Ayeyarwady River in Yunnan province, China, in September.
While the most tragic moves in 2012 are not so simple to choose, the one that is most likely to lead the economists is the task (on April 1) of the country's heavily exorbitant officially quoted foreign currency rates and the introduction of a market-based currency regime.
How are the outlook for Myanmar's next administration?
Peacemaking, federation, development und impoverishment - that is the networked "cluster", which must be at the top of the NLD's agendas. About Aung San Suu Kyi's political challenge in the years ahead. Myanmar's Second Parliament opened on 1 February 2016. The overwhelming win of the NLD in the last November 8th election means that the next generation of power will occupy the vast majority seat in the state.
Spokespersons and deputy spokespersons of the two chambers of Parliament have been appointed. It has been calm and ordered since the election - this was a conscious choice by both the current leaders and the victorious opponents. The silence was such that some reporters became anxious with the lack of information from the NLD.
This is the first civil rule that can exercise power - if not even power - over the army since the fifties. Secondly, the NLD has also won in the ethnical states. Perhaps for the first to do so, for the first reason ethnical nations voted for a pan-national political group.
Mr President, I am pleased that the electoral procedure has gone very well and now we must ensure that the will of the electorate is complied with. It seems, however, that the next generation of parliament and government will be ruled by one single political group. There has been much trust in the Parliament of the Union in 2011-2015, but now the equilibrium is gone and I have concerns about working with a legislative that has very little multitudinous.
The NLD's next presidency will be his candidate and will be strongly swayed by the MP. It is therefore to be hoped that there will be a division of power, but Parliament and the government are under the control of one group. Myanmar's justice is unreliable.
It is therefore imperative to strike a proper equilibrium. It' s not enough to say that the military will still be there - we do not want this body to prolong its political work. With the NLD's vast majority, both at trade unions and province level, the party's strength and weakness will be handed over to the next administration that will run it.
What can the NLD administration do to meet the huge public expectation? Its most recent stance is that it will not be focusing on the chairmanship, but on its political parties and governmen. However, it will still need the backing of the army, which has 25 percent of the Parliament.
And, once the amendments have been adopted by Parliament, there must be a popular vote. New Parliament will appoint the Chairman and Vice-Presidents. Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi is likely to occupy a cabinets post giving her a place on the highest national Defence and Security Council.
It is the networked clusters that must be at the top of the NLD agendas - freedom, federation, development und impoverishment. This is perhaps the greatest commercial problem, and it can quickly become political if it is not met. We need to make headway over the next 12 month if the new NLD administration is to be seen as trustworthy.
In all honesty - on almost all sides the NLD leaders will need the kind of accomplished political ability they are not. In a sarcastic statement to a group of post-election journalist groups, I said that one of the solutions was for Aung San Suu Kyi to call in tens of international counsel.
" Aung San Suu Kyi and her political parties are not particularly fortunate in this ability to find a good equilibrium in many, many areas of political activity. After the sweeping election win, the Moloch mentalities and the seduction to get the association involved - at least within the group.
The reform of U Thein Sein over the past five years has been diverse and produced a mix of results. For the most part, the civilian sector has remained unaffected - the central place where the reform has failed. A resounding grass-roots remit also means great hopes that the NLD regime must meet in order to be trustworthy.
Not only will there be pressure to continue the reform process, but also to introduce new ones and to put them all into effect. It will be one of the key challenges I see to "manage" these aspirations. As the NLD-lead parliament and the upcoming NLD administration as they are, the only possible choice could be to "outsource" the reform process.
While wholesalers and foreign capacities may work for the reform, there will be a political cost. First and foremost to be given to the still serious national cease-fire in the immediate aftermath of the new government's accession to office. It will be up to the NLD-led regime to use its influence to unite all sides.
Now it seems the NLD administration must achieve what Thein Sein's administration could not. It will then have to lead not only the consolidation of the democratic process but also the move towards federation. Political dialog under the NCA (National Ceasefire Agreement) should involve federalization. But there is a sense that Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD are tepid about this, and there are rumours that she could even side with the war.
It seems that the aim of the center is to achieve a peaceful solution, but without too much federation. It would be a good idea to introduce a gradual federalist system and to allow the development of freedom. Now, as the federalist system has disappeared from the cupboard, the focus is increasingly on ethnical identity and self-assertion. Burma is a anthropological heaven and a statesmen' dream.
It is a more developed and robust democracy about growth, households and better welfare work. It will also be the cabinet and prime minister (heads of local governments), with the exception of the Secretary of States. I' d say the political challenge is everywhere. We are talking about the big losses in the November election - the high-ranking retiring soldiers and the MaBaTha who are joining forces.
In addition, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which is associated with the armed forces, will be licking its sores and re-forming. They are not satisfied with their reduced political roles. Other political factions in the government will exist, but they are quite in the same boat. What do you mean? Myanmar's upcoming hurdles would burden even a powerful state and capable government.
The depletion of the military's political arms in the electoral process has overthrown the actual positions of the army. Electoral results are a strong declaration that the Myanmar tribe does not endorse the institution. Than Shwe and Aung San Suu Kyi's December summit (with the former army dictator) is all the more welcome as it is precisely these two individuals who have been halting Myanmar's border crossing for two centuries.
More information can be found in our Myanmar election file.