Political Structure of MyanmarMyanmar's political structure
The political factions
It' simple to start a political group in Myanmar. The majority of political groups are small to small, only four are present nationally: There are many political groups that concentrate on their nationalities. The largest of these ethnical political groups in Rakhine State are the Arakan NP (ANP), which receives great backing from the Rakhine Buddhists.
Ethnical political groups try to reach agreement on a number of crucial questions. The Nationalities Brotherhood Federation, a alliance of 25 ethnical political groups, is one way of working together. This government, if it performs well in the ethnically minorities (where the USDP and NLD are relatively weak), could very well be the king-maker in the election of the next presidency.
Myanmar's political factions do not usually differ in their platform. Like in other South East Asia the policy is personalised and the electorate distinguishes between the political groups on the basis of their political leadership. The electorate, for example, knows the NLD leadership, the controversial Aung San Suu Kyi, but not necessarily her sentiments. This is also the case for the USDP; the only two members known to the electorate are Thein Sein, the current US presidency, and Shwe Mann, the spokesman of the lower chamber and chair of the group.
Political Parties must: Nominee voters can only stand for office after the 2015 elections are known. ELIZABETH: Party: Not only does Aung San Suu Kyi dominate Myanmar's political scene like a giant, she is a well-known and popular political character worldwide. The Woman, she was the dauntless sound of Myanmar's consciousness in the last 25 years (fifteen of which were under home arrest).
The National League for Democracy won the 1990 elections crucially, but the elections were cancelled and she was detained. Next year, when the NLD joined the political struggle, in the 2012 by-election, when it won 43 of 44 controversial places, it was almost entirely due to its famous call.
A member of this House and head of the political group, she seems to have changed from a woman lawyer for the protection of fundamental freedoms to a down-to-earth political figure. She was disappointing to many when she spoke of the violation of the Muslim Rohingya people and the struggles in the country's ethnical states, and when she headed a committee that investigated a conquest conflict between impoverished peasants and a coal mine, she chose the business.
That may have taken away some of her fame, but she is still the most beloved political figure in Myanmar, with far greater backing than any other political figure. Mr Aung San Suu Kyi cannot be appointed to the EU Presidential Council because a constitution would prevent someone whose wife or child is a foreigner from serving as either Presidential or Vice-President (their child is British).
ELIZABETH: Party: Its current chairman, Thein Sein, was a small man who had a modest education. Thein Sein was appointed serving premier in 2007, when the premier became ill, and was re-elected in October this year. A lot of people said that his nomination was staged by Than Shwe, a regime head who needed an agreeable face for the country's overture.
However, when he took up his post, Thein Sein embarked on a trial of reforms that astonished most observers in Myanmar. Mr. Aung San Suu Kyi, who then decided to reintegrate her NLD political group. By its very nature reserved, Thein Sein successfully presided over the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2014, worked with leading personalities of the globe, campaigned for the lifting of Western penalties and skilfully implemented the campaign with the multinational press.
ELIZABETH: Party: Though he does not have the prominent Aung San Suu Kyi stature and the standing of Thein Sein, Shwe Mann has become a trustworthy presidential contender by earning a credibility as a reformist and a personality who can unite different sides. On his own, he has contributed to strengthening Parliament's power over the government, which could be an important basis for a robust democracy in Myanmar.
Mr Shwe Mann is one of the few good choices for the EU Council and would be a convincing contender. Most Myanmar analysts believe he is ambitions and has the country's leadership in mind. He also has to struggle with the possibility that President Thein Sein has not entirely excluded a second mandate.
ELIZABETH: Party: And the third candidate is Min Aung Hlaing, the military's supreme commanding officer, who is about to retirement and could make an offer for the chair. Aung Hlaing entered the military like Thein Sein and became known in 2009 after launching an attack against the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance rebel force in Kokang, one of the most northern parts of the nation near the China frontier.
Mr. Hlaing is known for his firm attachment to the Myanmar army dogma of complete defence and his harsh attitude towards nationalities. For this reason it is hard to see how he will find backing for his offer of presidency from the NLD or the national political groupings.
Following the parliamentary elections, the members of parliament will elect a chairman. As Aung San Suu Kyi is excluded from the presidential bid, the three most important candidates are likely to be Thein Sein, Shwe Mann and Min Aung Hlaing. However, even if it gains a smaller share of the votes - which is very likely - it could still form a alliance with some of the racial groups that rely on the USDP.
As Min Aung Hlaing has little parliamentary backing, the fight for the chairmanship will most likely result in a fight between Shwe Mann and Thein Sein. Thein relies on thein being more than Shwe man, who it thinks has become too much of a innovator and could possibly further debilitate the army as its president.
However, if the USDP gains enough seat to form a government with the help of the military fraction and some ethnical political groups, it is quite possible that the NLD, although it is the biggest fraction in Congress, could still stay an opposing group. Mr Aung San Suu Kyi, as chairman of the political group that is likely to hold the most houses of state, is likely to become the spokeswoman for the lower chamber, so her relations with the next presidency will be decisive.
You and the presidency will have to work together to shape and enforce law in this House and put it in a strong political stance. Then the NLD would get the NLD, despite the 25 per cent parliamentary voting in the Bundestag, the right of the presidential electoral college that will choose the presidency.
Aung San Suu Kyi alone could determine who will be the next presidency in this one. It can still vote a nominee among the two USDP leader Shwe Mann and Thein Sein - or it could go deeply into the Netherlands and select a relatively new one. However, the clear winners in such a situation would be Aung San Suu Kyi herself, as she would not only be the spokeswoman for the lower chamber, but also the de facto shadows chairwoman of the state.