Myanmar's moment: Unparalleled chances, great demands
Myanmar's economic activity could expand by less than 4 per cent per year if present levels of production and demographics continue. However, this could rise to 8 per cent if the state diversifies its economies and more than doubles its labour productivity gains - a challenging but not unparalleled achievement. Burma is a very uncommon but exciting perspective for companies and investment - an undeveloped business with many benefits at the core of the world's most rapidly expanding area.
The early phase of economical growth gives the nation a "greenfield" advantage: the possibility to develop a "fit for purpose" industry that corresponds to the contemporary state. Well-run, Myanmar could increase the magnitude of its economies fourfold from $45 billion in 2010 to more than $200 billion in 2030, creating more than 10 million non-agricultural employment.
Myanmar's moment: It concludes that if Myanmar's present demographics and labour production trend continues, it could expand by less than 4 per cent per year. However, it has the capacity to increase by 8 per cent annually if it speeds up the yearly increase in labour productivity from 2.7 per cent to 7 per cent - a challenging but not unparalleled achievement (exhibition).
The only way to increase labour efficiency is to diversify the economies; the exclusive dependence on oil, gas and coal would not do. It also notes that four areas that have so far attracted little interest could support either of them. Burma is beginning its road to business prosperity in the era of the rise of affordability in wireless and web technologies.
Support for a change in production structure. Whilst other developing countries have seen a change in structure from farming to production, Myanmar's dependence on farming has soared. Today, the country's production industry is small in relative numbers - less than half the Vietnamese production area - but it has the capacity to be the biggest in Myanmar by 2030.
Most of Myanmar's inhabitants are living in the countryside, but that is about to happen. By 2030, the proportion of the urban populace could have doubled from 13% today to around 25% - another ten million inhabitants or two towns the size of Yangon. Burma would profit from preparation for this transformation through investments, programming and a move to regional government.
Burma must find the best way to reconnect to the world economic through investments, commerce and human flow. It may need more than $170 billion in external funds to cover its total $650 billion in investments and should devise a focused exit plan to draw it in. Not only is the volume of trading low, but it is not diversified, and Myanmar could broaden its trading possibilities and boost demographic trends to promote the transfer of know-how, capacity development and the development of the tourist industry.
In order to deliver on this dilemma, the Myanmar authorities are likely to need more capacities and consider establishing a force to solve issues and promote the realisation of transformation. It is imperative that multinational corporations act quickly, be willing to engage in Myanmar on a long-term basis and consider partnering with communities.