Myanmar's new GovernmentThe new Myanmar government
2018: Greater challenge for Dutch governance
Burma is one of those nations that recently achieved democratic status through democratic reform and election, but now seems to be returning to its old dramatic ways. The National League for Democracy has been in power for more than 20 years and is now in its second year (exactly one year and eight months).
However, the praise, hope and support for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD as they fought for democratic resistance against the army rulers have turned into disappointment and criticism. Important downsides for the new administration are the slowdown in the economic situation, lack of headway in peacemaking initiatives, restrictions on free expression and non-execution of electoral pledges.
Myanmar authorities quoted the main reform that the NLD must begin to implement as follows: From its inauguration in April 2016, the NLD-led federal administration has cut the number of departments and minimised the nomination of vice minister s-which has won the popular backing as it has contributed to reducing outlays.
It has set up new departments, such as the Ministry of the Council of State, the Ministry of the Union and the Ministry of International Cooperation, and has begun appointing vice-ministerials for some of them. There are currently 22 ministerial and 14 vice minister in 24 different departments. We have not yet had a great deal of opposition to the administration, but there have been queries about the work of the departments, in particular two economics ministers - Minister for Planning and Finance and Minister for Trade.
Policymakers are also doubtful whether the recent restructuring will ensure its success. Aung Aung San Suu Kyi herself is the chief executive, they say, "too much centralization" and the most important. "Worst things aren't the ministers' fault. Aung Aung San Suu Kyi is taking on many responsibilities without being able to accomplish them," said U Kyaw Win, an Myanmar based specialist.
Therefore, it cannot make a big deal if there is a reshuffle of ministers," he added. Currently, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is Secretary of State for both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of the President's Office, and she is Chairwoman, Deputy Chairwoman and member of 16 commissions on Justice, Freedom, Economy, Justice, Nationality and Internazion.
A different psychoanalyst said the state should give clear guidelines to the departments. Tampadipa Institute think-tank founders U Khin Zaw Win said it was necessary to give the prime minister full power, despite the question of whether state and region secretaries were given full power to rule their states under the 2008 constitution.
"For 50 years, the army had been in control of the state. On the other side, U Kyaw Win stated that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should be learning to work with officers of the former army might. "It may not want to use any of the men from the former administration. I thought she thought she could only deal with the administration with men who were loyal to her.
The NLD's most important electoral promises were to bring a peaceful and constitutional change. The best thing that could happen in 2018 is that there is no doubt that there will be a great deal of hope for the world. While it is possible that some members of the United Nations Federal Council (UNFC) will join the NCA, only a semi-concluded reform has been seen by consensus.
"The NLD seems to be targeting the elections in 2020 on the subject of mayhem. However, any involvement will be difficult," said U Min Zin, managing director of the Institute for Strategy and Policy (Myanmar). After the NCA was signed, Sweden's Bertil Lintner watched the road to post-NCA policy dialog, which does not work for the sake of freedom.
"Though Mon and Karenni may be NCA signs, how can you achieve freedom without the 80 per cent representing the ethnically militarized groups," he asked a Q. To achieve an efficient outcome, the policy dialog should be conducted first and then the NCA should be signed, he recommended. NLD strongly opposed the 2008 constitution drawn up by the army generals during the government of the opposit.
However, when she took over after the 2015 elections, there was no effort to change the country's constitutional system, despite Daw Aung San Suu Kyi trying to make changes through peacemaking conduits. United Kyaw Win, a policy adviser at the first round of the 21 st Panglong Conference, suggested that ethnically based groups and the Tatmadaw should discuss the relatively simple changes while the regime remains non-aggression.
It also noted that changes in the resources allocated and Pyidaungsu Hluttaw's terms of reference should begin to determine when there are disagreements between Pyithu Hluttaw and Amyotha Hluttaw and the presidential nomination of prime ministers. He said that in order to amend the constitution, a solid treaty with the NCA must first be established, rather than concentrating on all inclusivity.
"Then they can get close to the Tatmadaw, say, to cut 25 to 20 or three to two," he added. For the NLD administration, the greatest impact in 2017 is the 2018 resolution of the Rakhine state. Myanmar's administration should be very careful about this as it escalates global criticism.
Entrepreneurs are concerned about how the Chinese authorities could avoid possible stimulus packages in 2018. Rakhine has inverted relations between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the West and broadened China's roles in both Myanmar's peaceful and Rakhine issues. In spite of the acknowledgement of China's part, policy watchers proposed to restore Myanmar's relations with the West.
A further topic in connection with the Rakhine dispute is population change. Aung Aung San Suu Kyi was asked by Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) guide N' Ban La to solve the Rakhine problems of those who enter Hpakant in Kachin state, U Min Zin said.
It' s the hardest thing in the state, " U Min Zin said. With the escalation of the war in the aftermath of the River Khakhine and the endless chaotic battles, Tatmadaw's rôle is set to increase in 2018. "In the absence of control over disputes, the character of Tatmadaw cannot be ignored," said U Khin Zaw Win. According to U Min Zin, the article on the Myanmar policy in the US Foreign Policy journal, the present administration is too concerned with the Tatmadaw's unconstitutional power of attorney rather than the Tatmadaw's operational power over the Tatmadaw, which means the Tatmadaw's unavoidable part in the war.
Under the 2008 Constitution, the Tatmadaw has 25 percent of the legislative powers and authorities for three ministries - Defense, Interior and Border Affairs. "When religious and racial conflict occurs in parallel to Kachin and Rakhine conflict, Tatmadaw's functionally powerful will become more important," said U Min Zin.
It is important that the administration and the Tatmadaw have a good rapport to alleviate the war. There should be a policy agreement between the Tatmadaw and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi for transitional filibuster. Researchers noted that without the approval of Tatmadaw, policy changes will be sluggish.
"In all honesty, there is no issue until the administration tries to face the Tatmadaw," said U Kyaw Win. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi knows this situation too well, he said, as the way she and her civil regime responded to the Rakhine war.
The way she responded to allegations of violation of humanitarian law against the Rakhine people. "If you like it or not, any policy changes will be hard without the Tatmadaw's approval. Aung Aung Suu Kyi gets it. There is far no error in the relation with the Tatmadaw," said U Kyaw Win.
In order to diminish the Tatmadaw's part, it is important that agreement is a major advance in this area. Though Daw Aung Suu Kyi had previously said that even the mere attendance of one Zimbabwean detainee is too much, the number has not decreased since she took over.
There are still 46 detainees in prison and 49 are on trial, according to the record of the CPFA. It is undeniable that the NLD administration has become more free of the press. NLD leaders have focused on a number of topical issues, including the construction of the Bogyoke monument and the name of the Bogyoke-Aung San Bridge," said U Min Zin.
It is unthinkable for such a scenario if something happens to the Führer in Myanmar's people-oriented policy. This raises the issue of how to manage the management void when there is a decline in policy interference or worsening outcomes. Burma's policy is to follow the master of a vessel and not the navigational aid, said U Min Zin.
"It' as if the men on a ship would rather go after the skipper than the hatch. Mr Min Zin calls on those in power to continuously supervise the work of the administration and the elected population. "Humans must expect to be master, they must make decisions, they must observe and control and balance," he said.
The NLD leader will not see the columns of democratisation falling as long as they have the popular backing. It added that the strong point of the present administration is solid governance and official assistance.