Myanmar Rural PopulationBurma Rural Population
Included in this project are population forecasts for the Union of Myanmar, for the Union's rural and municipal areas and for the 15 states/regions on the basis of the 2014 population and housing census in Myanmar. For the EU population and the rural/urban population, three types of project are envisaged: a low population growing version, a moderately growing version and a high population growing version.
The yearly population forecasts for the Union and rural and town areas up to 2050 are given. They will be granted until 2031 for states/regions, this year in accordance with the long-term cooperation programmes of the Myanmar government. The population forecasts relate to October 1, the focus of Myanmar's year.
In the middle version, a population of 65 people is projected. Zero million people for 2050. The number of employees is 3 million (Table 2.3). Over the forecasting horizon, the Union's population increase will fall continuously from 9 per thousand in 2015 to 3 per thousand in 2050. Declining gross numbers of births are the primary cause of the decrease (Table 2.4).
Between 2035 and 2050, the number of deaths due to an aging population will increase slightly, increasing the population with the highest age group. The net emigration from abroad is reducing population increase, but not significantly. Estimates of the raw migration in the world drop from two per thousand in 2015 to one per thousand in 2050.
Population is ageing continuously and significantly during the projections horizon. Between 2015 and 2050, the number of people aged 0-14 will fall by 14 percent and the number of people aged 15-64 will rise by 23 percent. In the same time frame, the number of people aged 65 and over has more than doubled.
Aging index (persons 65+ subdivided by 0-14 year olds times 100) increases from 20 in 2015 to 76 in 2050 (Table 2.6). The middle version increases the percentage of the city population from 29. to 34 in 2015. 7k in 2050 (Table 3.3).
Raw rural GDP is declining from 7 per thousand for 2015-2020 to zero for 2045-2050 (Table 3.4). In the same time frame, the quota for municipal areas drops from 13 to 8 per thousand. Gross rural and municipal baby mortality will both fall between 2015 and 2050, but the gap between them will narrow to almost zero by the end of the time.
Rural net immigration remained constant at -3 per thousand from 2015 to 2050 (the minus symbol in "-3" means emigration from rural to city areas). Municipal migratory flows drop from 7 to 5 per mille. These tariffs are the same for people moving from rural to town.
Ratios differ in size because the nominal values are different: the rural population for the rural council and the city population for the city council. The net emigration figures are almost the same for rural and city areas. Population aging in rural and metropolitan areas is remarkable low (Table 3.5).
They are both ageing in a similar way to the Union's population (Table 2.6). However, in the city there are more people over 15 years of age, and fewer people under 15 than in rural areas. It is a result of lower birth rate in city areas and rural-urban immigration, which focuses on young adults (Table 3.2).
The Yangon region is set to grow 39 percent faster than any other state/region between 2015 and 2031 (Table 4.3). The other fast growth states/regions are Kayah State (37 percent), Kachin State (32 percent), Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory (27 percent) and Shan State (26 percent). The Ayeyawady Region, Magway Region and Mon State are states/regions that are losing population.
Despite the large disparities in terms of economic development, the ranking of states/regions by population is not changing significantly. China and Kayah states have by far the highest raw fertility rate, 33 and 27 per thousand inhabitants in 2015 (Table 4. 4) and 28 and 22 per thousand in 2030.
Gross birthrates for other countries/regions vary from 17 to 24 per thousand for 2015 and from 15 to 20 per thousand for 2030. While all states/regions are losing their populations due to migration, the rate for Mon and Kayin is unusually high, 12 per thousand inhabitants. The Tanintharyi region and Chin State also have high percentages, 8 and 6 per thousand respectively.
The prices for other countries/regions are put at one to two per thousand. The countries/regions differ significantly in their distribution of ages in 2015. Aging indices in 2015 range from a low of 11-13 for Kayah, Chin, Kachin and Shan to a high of 27 for Magway (Table 4. 5 and Figure 4.2).
By 2030 the rankings are similar, but the aging index is now between 18 and 26 for the states of Chin, Kayah, Kachin and Shan. At Magway it is 50, which means that the population over 65 years is half the population between 0 and 14 years old.