Myanmar Gdp 2016Burma GDP 2016
Government balance, revenue and debt, 2014 (as % of GDP).
The Myanmar Economic Monitor, May 2016
Two years of rapid global warming and a stable macro economy were followed by a more adverse business climate in Myanmar in 2015-2016. Throughout this time, Myanmar's economy has slowed from an annual rate of 8.5% in 2014-2015 to 7%, due to a surge in supplies caused by severe floods, a deceleration in new investments during an electoral year and a more adverse outside climate with lower raw material costs for Myanmar's major exporters.
Historical November 2015 polls sparked general business confidence and investor sentiment. But persistent exigencies, short-term currency pressure, increasing headline price increases and policy changes have slowed new capital outflows. This has highlighted a number of short-term financial vulnerabilities for Myanmar.
In July-September 2015, the effects of the floods on farming helped to drive up agricultural spending, which peaked at 16% in October 2015. In the first three quarters of 2015-2016, agricultural supplies shocks and falling raw material costs caused a 12% decline in export figures in comparison with the same quarter last year.
As a result, the trading deficits have increased and the pressure on the euro has increased. Institution building and policies to address these macro-economic crises and disparities have been confronted with some challenge, such as a strong rise in fiscal funding of the budget deficits, increased pressure on inflation and action to curb external and import inflation.
Myanmar's outlook remains good, with a bonus on solid economic policy and institution that can help to cope with the pressure of 2015-2016. This in the shorter run means a balance between reducing the general government budget deficits for the sake of financial security and increasing expenditure on business service and finance to cope with the effects of lower raw material sourcing.
The reduction of the budgetary imbalance and sound government debts can help to alleviate the pressure of inflation and maintain the viability of government finances. The further development of a well-functioning currency regime should be crucial for Myanmar to continue to benefit from increasing trading and investing possibilities. That means further reinforcing formal markets mechanism (exchange rates auctioning, inter-bank system of exchangerate ) and preserving currency versatility.
A major challenge in gaining investment is the energy sector's ability to pay, which is crucially dependent on pricing policy for both energy supplies and energy redistribution. Reforming state institutions to enhance the openness, resilience and competitive position of the finance industry is also a top preoccupation, as these institutions still represent just over half of the bank sector's overall asset base.
In Myanmar, as the recovery of the global economic recovery from the 2015-2016 offer crisis and the recovery of consumer spending picks up, the country's GDP is forecast to grow in Real terms to 7.8% in 2016-2017 and an averaging 8. Agro-industry activity is likely to recover in the near future, while investor demands for service and building infrastructures are likely to be the key driving forces of economic upturn.
Inflation pressure is forecast to weaken due to the rebound following last year's agricultural supplies crisis and the forecast low global raw material price level of 8 on GDP averages. It is estimated that the Union's budget is running a budget gap of 3 on average. In the mid to longer run, the production and converting industries remain promising as potentially important driving forces for integrative economic development.