Myanmar Economic IndicatorsBurma Economic Indicators
The Myanmar Economic Monitor, October 2017
Myanmar's macro-economic climate has been relatively resilient during 2016/17, although economic expansion has been slowing to 5.9% from 7% in the prior year. In spite of remarkable reform and substantial promises of investments from abroad, the pace of capital spending declined as the economic agendas of the Chinese authorities awaited greater clarification from retail sector investors .
Government investment decreased, the agricultural industry shrank and the pace of deceleration in industry slumped due to lower levels of producing in the processing industry in the first three quarter and lower cogeneration. Household final consumption, which represents almost 50% of GNP, continues to stimulate trade, particularly in the city and in consumer goods such as TV sets, telephones and motorbikes.
Increasing consumers' buying strength and improved market accessibility have helped private households' wealth to grow significantly. Tightened economic policy and slower consumption have helped to improve Myanmar's overall foreign exposure in 2016/17, with an expected trade deficit of 1.4% compared to 0.8% in the year before.
Inflationary pressure fell to an annual rate of 6.8% in 2016/17, down from 10% in 2015/16 due to the impact of the sovereign debt situation on global economic activity. For 2017/18, a recovery in economic output to 6.4% is forecast, taking into account the recent worsening of the Rakhine state' s secuity situation. It could have a negative impact on the flow of investments already affected by investors' perception of the need to slow down reform and decrease resistance to shock, as well as disaster.
PPPs in key infrastructural such as electricity and transport are expected to increase and are key to the implementation of increasing PPPs in industries such as labour-intensive industries. Speeding up much-needed economic spending also requires advances in the areas of economic governance, including financial, regulatory and regulatory reform.
Summarising these in a broad medium-term economic programme with appropriate measures as well as an action programme and a report could strengthen investors' trust.