Birmania CountryBurman Country
.collective strength" to meet the challenges of our country.
Myanmar / Economic Studies
Myanmar's economy will continue to grow at the highest rate in the area in 2018. The activities profited from the National League for Democracy (NLD)'s democratization and entry into office in April 2016. However, the momentum will be relatively dependant on the 2018 adoption of a clear stimulus package by the Rakhine administration, as well as upon initial reform of institutions and the solution of the Rohingya people - a Moslem minorities in a major Islamic state, Rakhine State (western part of the country).
Agribusiness, which benefitted from favorable climate in 2017, will evolve further in 2018, especially due to the large amount of dams collected. With a projected 16% increase, the building industry should be the first to profit from this. 4 percent in 2018. China has constructed a 771-kilometer long natural-gas line that has been in operation since 2017 and has seven large infrastructural ventures in the Irrawaddy Valley, the country's principal flow.
Despite the absence of hotels, the trend in tourist spending should also persist. Despite the fact that despite the continuing prevalence of livelihoods, consumer spending (50% of GDP) will remain a key driver of economic expansion in 2018 and will benefit from increases in Burma's foreign wage levels and transfer rates. Weakness in the bankers' business is weighing on economic expansion.
Under the new regulation (from July 2017), loan expansion slowed after reaching a high ('31.4% in 2015/2016), especially in the building and real estate sector. Because of expansive macroeconomic policy, increasing salaries, increasing real estate costs and increasing internal consumption, the rate of increase in headline price is expected to be high.
The effort to keep the budgetary deficits under review is scheduled to be continued in 2018. But after a six-month transitional phase, the changeover of the financial year in October 2018 (from October to September instead of currently April to March) should burden the deficits. Most of the state's investments will be in the building of new industrial areas in Thaliwa, Dawei and Kyaukpyu.
Simultaneously, the federal administration wants to press ahead with the reform of the fiscal basis when the price of electricity is low, which would contribute to an increase in household income (tax survey to 8% of GNP in 2017). In the future, the country's sovereign debt will be less and less dependent on credit from the Federal Reserve to fund its deficits.
It aims to rise from 40% of the shortfall in 2017 to 20% in 2018. For foreign bank balances, the balance of payments shortfall will widen in 2018. It is expected that export growth will accelerate, particularly to China (the biggest trade partner), which will benefit from the building of the natural-gas gas pipelines (gas is the most widely exportled commodity - 39% of overall exports).
High FDI flows should compensate for the CA gap. In order to increase the resistance of the business community to outside shock, the government should move towards a variable currency parity in 2018. Politically, the state has experienced an unparalleled era of liberalization. In April 2012 some legislative ballots took place, the first ballots in which all members of the opposing party had participated since 1990.
The NLD won over 80% of the votes in the parliamentary ballot on 8 November 2015 and took over in April 2016. April 2017 subelections retained the NLD's stance, which dropped only one of 255 places. If the Rohingya region does not get better, the EU and US penalties could revert in 2018.
The Myanmar army's repressive action against the Rohingya people in Rakhine resulted in the deportation of more than 500,000 Muslims, most of whom were moving to Bangladesh, following policing outrages. Myanmar and Bangladesh have not yet concluded a readmission treaty in January 2018, as concern about the terms and nationality of the people concerned has not yet arisen when they returned to Myanmar.
Burma is one of the worlds impoverished nations according to the Doing Business Index of the WB (170 of 190).